Are representativeness judgments automatic and rapid? The effect of time pressure on the conjunction fallacy
نویسنده
چکیده
This study aimed to better understand the cognitive underpinnings of people’s intuitions concerning the conjunction rule of probabilities. Using a novel methodology to study the conflict between representativeness and logic considerations in the conjunction fallacy, results revealed that, contrary to what is commonly assumed, assessments of representativeness are not automatic and rapid but are in fact most influential when participants are not pressured by time to provide a judgment. Implications for the different dual-system accounts of probability judgments will be discussed.
منابع مشابه
Commentary: Extensional Versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment
Perhaps the simplest and the most basic qualitative law of probability is the conjunction rule: The probability of a conjunction, P(A&B), cannot exceed the probabilities of its constituents, P(A) and .P(B), because the extension (or the possibility set) of the conjunction is included in the extension of its constituents. Judgments under uncertainty, however, are often mediated by intuitive heur...
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Perhaps the simplest and the most basic qualitative law of probability is the conjunction rule: The probability of a conjunction, P(A&B), cannot exceed the probabilities of its constituents, P(A) and P(B), because the extension (or the possibility set) of the conjunction is included in the extension of its constituents. Judgments under uncertainty, however, are often mediated by intuitive heuri...
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